Apple’s rival are cursed, left to face dooms day…
Please, waste a little minute of your life to read this : http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/06/16/heres-whats-going-to-happen-to-apples-rivals/ and then come back to the non-alienated world outside the US.
Fact: I am a huge apple fan. Fact: I do use the iPhone. Fact: I do use OsX. Fact: I know a lot of mobile phones. So let’s go:
Not using only the “Nokia sells more than apple in single day” argument, the point is: Apple has a head start on the single smaller niche of the market: the high end phones. Also: Even on that niche, there’s still people that think that they need physical keyboards or a working bluetooth (so their small laptop can go to the internet once they are in the country for example). Also there’s a bunch of people who like to add media in a little bit free way, like just inserting a usb cable and copying inside the card. Likewise there’s people who want a little bit better reception and a camera that takes better pictures(like the sony ericssons).
With that on the line, and after you expend a little more time reading the comments the conclusion is the following:
Apple will indeed have a great year. But has someone noticed that the same success level that Apple had in the US was not achieved in the other countries? That only countries that are more american-like (Status-driven etc) like Brazil, will be able to replicate it, when others (parts of Europe, India, most of china) will continue with their own choices of phones (mainly durability, pre-paid cheap phones, etc)? Does anyone reported that Symbian, even with all it’s flaw still selling a lot of phones and by no ways in the universe will be staring at apple without moving?
Please people! Get your grips on! It will be a nice competition, on the high end section, but as everything it is also subjected to a possibility of failure in several other market, and the whole early adopter community can also be dragged in the future to more open devices like the future android enabled ones. The market scenario will be a lot more complicated than the iPod was for apple. iPhone will never never hit 20% market share in the world. This would mean nobody uses anything besides iphone on the high end category, what we all know is just like to say that nobody is going to use anything but the ipod ever again.
There’s just no space in the world for another monopoly like MS windows. I don’t believe that after all this bla bla bla about long tail, people believes that one product, with just storage space variation will be the doom of it’s competition.
Perhaps Marcelo. If you think about it, what separates the cost of the iPhone now from the others is now just the data plan. Tweak the data plan for other countries (and make it more affordable) and you will see a lot of people switching the iPhone. But of course, there are others who would actually pay for a premium if you get what you pay for.
Here’s a great article on who is Apple’s target market:
June 16th, 2008 at 7:44 amhttp://www.jkontherun.com/2008/06/smartphone-make.html
Hi Reggie,
Sorry, but that’s the poing, if you take a look in market wise, there’s one thing: in places like brazil, 85% of users have pre-paid phones :) that means, almost no data, or data by really high prices. The good thing is : iphone will bring for sure 99 reais (at least) unlimited 3G data to the mobile phones (today you can have it only for usb 3g modens at 1mb that price) and the carrier only guarantee 7% of the 1mb speed, thus almost gprs (actually slower than edge as I use both daily)
So, if you take other big countries, and other big markets where the culture is way different in terms of plan, the difference is really price and more : features.
Why? simple, brazilians need the phone for picture, video and music. The iphone just need a better camera with support and a really lower price for pre-paid to rule here. While that is not happening, you see a lot of iphones here, because at 399 dolars (with the dolar in it’s lowest price in history), the jailbroken phones with pre or post paid plans don’t make any difference, and people are paying 1.2k reais to get one, but at that price, I can assure you only those who can really afford are going that way.
So it’s way more than data plan :) it’s cultural. And like a lot of other great products, it will just not repeat the same impact it had on the US.
Br
Marcelo
June 16th, 2008 at 1:01 pmHi Marcelo,
I agree that the iPhone 2.0 is still not for everyone. The same way as not all can afford an N95 or a Treo. But then, that is not Apple’s fault right? It’s more of the carriers trying to make money and luring consumers to paying more for data. Part of the iPhone’s success if the carrier will let the consumers use it (that means, making it more affordable).
Now, with iPhone 2.0, I heard that there is an option to turn off its data services (3G/Edge). I also heard that in some countries, there is an option to buy it unlocked. Now this becomes interesting since people can still buy the iPhone 2.0 and use most of its features without the data services (no expensive data plan). Then they can just connenct via WiFi at the office, at home, or at free WiFi hotspots.
I can name a few features of the iPhone 2.0 that will make a difference to regular users who, let’s assume, will not have a data plan but will have occasional WiFi access.
1. iPod/iTunes - music and movies is always good to have whereever you go, and it replaces the iPod of most iPod owners
2. App Store - one place to download apps - not all of them are free but there will be a lot free and you don’t need to sync your phone to your home PC to install the apps
3. Easy way to update the firmware — this is I guess a bnit technical for most, but if users have found it easy to use iTunes to rip CDs and upload the songs to the iPod, then there is almost no lurning curve to update the firmware. Compare this with other companies — firmware updater from Nokia and WM
4. The bundled apps - superb email, browser, weather, youTube, Photos, Calendar, Calendar — easy to use apps that beats any other similar mobile apps hands down in terms of the ease of use
Again, it’s not that 90% of the world will use an iPhone, not at all. It’s how Apple is making their presence known with designing apps as how it should be, with the end-users in mind. Who knows, this might stir a revolution — if there’s a high demand for the iPhone but the carrier is making it hard for the consumer to pay for data plans, then the consumers might find other means to connect and all together skip data connection via tha carrier. Now what if most places had WiFi… ;)
Reggie
June 16th, 2008 at 1:48 pmHi Reggie,
Indeed you wrote what I was talking: it’s simply not for everyone, thus it’s not going to “blow” the competitors, it’s only going to be other player in the market. It’s not going to repeat the 70% share of the ipod. that’s my comment. There will be room for Windows Mobile Users, for Android/Linux Users, for Symbian users and so on…
I agree that the iPhone 2.0 is still not for everyone. The same way as not all can afford an N95 or a Treo. But then, that is not Apple’s fault right? It’s more of the carriers trying to make money and luring consumers to paying more for data. Part of the iPhone’s success if the carrier will let the consumers use it (that means, making it more affordable).
Yeah, but what I’m saying is that the price then is the same for an iphone and the n95. But in this case, they face the choice of feature based, that the 2nd ipod still not solving. And when I talk about 3rd world country, features like camera, being able to swap cards, simple copy music from a pen drive without needing software do make the difference. Still (there’s already a lot of iphones here in brazil) but from a 120 million phones market here, only 3% buys phones that cost more than 1k reais. So now the unlocked phones will not be available in the US (unlockable) and so the “black market” will decrease, leaving brazilians that would pay 1.5k for an iphone only the option to still pay 1k + data plan (99 reais) going to a total of : 3.4k over the 2 years contract! unfortunately, unlike the US 3rd world countries are big markets but also big Taxes guys. Nokia and the others has manufacturing plants here, so.. really lower taxes.
a 199 device will cost at least 1.2k in brazil. And the carriers knows that from the 120 million phones, only 1% are willing to pay for data plans over 50 reais.
Now, with iPhone 2.0, I heard that there is an option to turn off its data services (3G/Edge). I also heard that in some countries, there is an option to buy it unlocked. Now this becomes interesting since people can still buy the iPhone 2.0 and use most of its features without the data services (no expensive data plan). Then they can just connenct via WiFi at the office, at home, or at free WiFi hotspots.
Indeed, I have the numbers for example it goes for 500 euros in some countries and others more than that. So it’s higher than the n95, or a k850 for example.
Again, you’re taking the US “reality” to the other places :) Wifi is not that common here. Free hotspots? you can count on your fingers in the whole country. The same goes to africa, to india, to china.
The iphone without the data capability? it’s an expensive not connected device. I think it loses all it’s (great value)
I can name a few features of the iPhone 2.0 that will make a difference to regular users who, let’s assume, will not have a data plan but will have occasional WiFi access.
1. iPod/iTunes - music and movies is always good to have whereever you go, and it replaces the iPod of most iPod owners
Agreed. It does that for me.
2. App Store - one place to download apps - not all of them are free but there will be a lot free and you don’t need to sync your phone to your home PC to install the apps
It’s nice, but in brazil and other countries, people don’t pay. They hack. 95% of software in brazil is illegal (eg). Mobile phones are not different. The only thing that sells here is the ringtones from great artists.
3. Easy way to update the firmware — this is I guess a bnit technical for most, but if users have found it easy to use iTunes to rip CDs and upload the songs to the iPod, then there is almost no lurning curve to update the firmware. Compare this with other companies — firmware updater from Nokia and WM
Agreed. This is killer. But I don’t agree with the itunes. People simply use what you give them (windows media player) yes :/ the same explorer - firefox problem. Even if you install, they will be pissed. Of course loving their phones can change that… but this is not smooth as it was in other places.
4. The bundled apps - superb email, browser, weather, youTube, Photos, Calendar, Calendar — easy to use apps that beats any other similar mobile apps hands down in terms of the ease of use
Agreed, I do love the email and the browser, all other apps are also great.
Again, it’s not that 90% of the world will use an iPhone, not at all. It’s how Apple is making their presence known with designing apps as how it should be, with the end-users in mind. Who knows, this might stir a revolution — if there’s a high demand for the iPhone but the carrier is making it hard for the consumer to pay for data plans, then the consumers might find other means to connect and all together skip data connection via tha carrier. Now what if most places had WiFi… ;)
I know that, but I’m also saying that it’s unnaceptable to think that apple is going to reproduce it’s success on every venue. Even Brazil that is REALLY a wanna-be-US country, it’s going to be REALLY a niche. 4% of the population holds 85% of the whole country income. This is unnaceptable, and reflects on the market. Now try to imagine this to the other big markets.
Apart from third country, why iphone didn’t have the same impact on europe? Culture is a big thing here also. It’s just different environemnts. different rules.
So in the end, is Apple gooing to sell a lot? for sure. More than last years? Don’t doubt it. But being in 10x more countries, reaching 10x more people that it reached on US will not make it sells 10x more (60 millions for example), just because it’s not for everyone even inside it’s own niche, and subsized prices are good for people only in countries where “post-paid” plans are a common.
Remember: I live in Brazil, work directly for nokia, but I do use the iphone, because I use more browsing, etc then a phone itself. Because when you are in a not so good spot… I can tell you the reception is crap, I need to connect my laptop to the internet, I need to make a movie of someone doing something and all of this still bothers me as hell. And the iphone that I was able to pay 399 dollars, or even the 199 dollar iphone will not be available to me at this price, only at 500 euros (650 dollars) or more, so it’s not that easier anymore to get the “black market” iphone :) thus, the sales numberts that apples has today will also suffers from this flow of users, that will just not bind to any plan (don’t matter if the phone is for free) because they simple don’t do it.
June 16th, 2008 at 2:26 pmAmerican technology websites have always been insular, especially in the mobile phone and portable device world. They completely ignore Symbian because it’s not popular in the US, yet it’s the most used operating system in smartphones by a large margin. They think Palm is popular, yet virtually no one uses it outside America.
And technology websites all over the world are far too obsessed with expensive toys instead of products that real people actually buy.
The simple truth is that the average sale price of a mobile phone (and this is sim-free, unlocked, without any kind of contract) is just $100. Average. And it’s going down all the time. The biggest markets and the largest amount of growth aren’t in the US or Europe but developing areas like China, India and Africa. They want phones that are cheap, tough and dependable, because they’re using them as important tools, not shiny gadgets.
The iPhone, once you include the payments made in the monthly charges, is closer to $1000. Apple will never get anywhere near the mass market with a device at that price, it would be like trying to reach the mass market with a $100,000 car or $20 chocolate bar. Most people around the world simply cannot pay that much for any phone, no matter how good it is.
(Incidentally, the “$199 iPhone” figure is just the first installment on a much bigger payment, you cannot buy the iPhone on its own sim-free for $199.)
The truth is the really big players in the phone world make most of their sales and profits from extremely cheap phones that are getting cheaper all the time. Until there’s an iPhone that costs under $100 unlocked sim-free with no contract, Apple will not have any significant market share in the phone world.
I don’t personally think Apple cares about market share, they just want to make a lot of profit from a lucrative niche, which is what they did with the iPod and the Macintosh.
It’s ludicrous to compare Apple to Nokia or Samsung or Sony Ericsson, because it would be like comparing Rolls Royce to Toyota. They might make similar kinds of products, but they’re aimed at totally different markets with very little overlap.
June 24th, 2008 at 3:23 pm(By the way, your “contact” link at the top of the screen is broken…)
June 24th, 2008 at 3:25 pmhttp://tech-exposed.com/
Apple may have the buzz right now but that doesnt mean that the competition is doomed. Right now they are fast a work creating their own versions (in some shape or fashion) of the iPhone to push to their die hard fans. Apple just jumped the gun and upped the antie a bit on the entire field.
July 3rd, 2008 at 4:56 am