So We are a small country (at least if you compare to China) but we have more than 100 million mobile phone users (I think the last number I saw was something like 120mil lines. Apple’s partner (America movil) opened a registration for those interested in the Apple 3G iPhone and got 100k guys there. They didn’t say what the plan is going to be, but is not going to be less than 99 Brazilian Reais (1/4 of a minimum salary) and for sure there will be a fee + taxes (not free iPhone for plans under 300 reais / monthly).

This give us the following scenario :
a. It seems that there’s something like 200k users already in Brazil (using jailbroken phones) + the 100k or a little bit more users from the other carries, we can arrive at a number of 500k possible clients. so if iPhone reaches 1 million in one year will be quite a achievement… but how much does it represent? less than 1%. I strongly believe that they will be confined to the 500k-600k clients, half of them non-official from 2g models, so no revenue, no unlimited data plan and a maximum 0,5% market share. It seems that the High end phones market in Brazil is something around 5% giving this ~10% to Apple which is not bad, but also is not 100% official, profit generating iPhones like the official ones sold by the carriers.

I think my previous comment will start to make sense once the phone hit’s the stores :)